50 Days In, India's Monsoon Struggles Under El Nino's Grip

It's been over 50 days since the Southwest Monsoon began in India. India is now pushing through a stubborn and erratic monsoon season. Following a slow start and long dry spells, the overall health of the season now remains under pressure. With agriculture depending greatly on the 4 months, weather experts are now assessing where we stand, how strongly El Nino is dominating, and what the rest of the season might look like.Looking at the national level, the first half of the season has left a noticeable shortfall in water reserves. According to Mayuresh Prabhune, Secretary at the Centre for Citizen Science, Pune, and an Independent Researcher on Monsoon and Society, the overall numbers are concerning. Prabhune cautions, "From 1st June to 21st July, there has been a -21% deficit in rainfall at the all-India level. This is an alarming situation."While numbers tell part of the picture, there is still a greater story to be unravelled, one that is unfolding at the local level. One must also look at the uneven shower distribution of the showers. Notably, the distribution has been remarkably uneven and has left large farming belts dry with only a few pockets overwhelmed with rain. Prabhune highlights this local disparity. He said, "56% of the country is under deficient or large deficient. Where it has rained, it has been extremely heavy, such as in the Konkan region. Because of heavy rain in Konkan, overall figures for Maharashtra appear normal, but a district-level analysis reveals that 21 districts in Maharashtra are actually rainfall-deficient." In short, while a state's total rainfall might look sufficient on paper, rural pockets often remain deeply stressed. The El Nino Factor The main perpetrator behind this year's sluggish monsoon is El Nino, which causes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that traditionally suppresses Indian monsoonal rains. Prabhune explains that El Nino has gained strength far quicker than expected.He said, "In the Pacific, El Nino's intensity is increasing. The temperature in the Nino 3.4 region has risen by more than 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal by mid-July itself, whereas El Nino peaks of over 2 degrees Celsius are usually observed in November-December." This rapid warming in the Pacific has effectively pulled key atmospheric systems away from the Indian subcontinent. Prabhune explains how there have been fewer rain-bearing systems this time around. "June and July combined should have seen at least 5 low-pressure systems, which hasn't happened. Compared to last year-when 8 to 10 low-pressure systems formed during June and July-there have been only 2 this year," he said.Prabhune also points out that a strong El Nino is stealing India's rain clouds. Because the Pacific is so warm, key rain-bearing cloud systems (like the Madden-Julian Oscillation) are staying active over the Pacific instead of moving over the Indian Ocean.How The Season Has Unfolded So FarTracking the monsoon's timeline reveals just how unpredictable July has been. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, maps out the trajectory. Palawat highlights how the season kicked off on a rough note, with June concluding at a massive 40% rainfall deficit nationwide. He further explains how rains picked up remarkably during the first week of July, pulling the national deficit down to 19% by July 9. Shortly after, a "break monsoon" phase set in, pushing the overall deficiency back up to 24%.Around July 20, the main monsoon trough shifted southward from the Himalayan foothills. According to Palawat, this movement revived rain across the Indo-Gangetic plains, Central India, and key stretches of the West Coast, including Konkan, Goa, and coastal Karnataka.What Lies Ahead For August And September?As we tread into the second half of the monsoon, farmers and authorities overseeing water security are eyeing the forecast with hopeful, cautious optimism for the short term, but lingering worry for the long term. Right now, the monsoon is in an active spell. Palawat expects decent rainfall to continue across central and northern regions through the end of July, offering a welcome break for standing Kharif crops. However, the lingering presence of El Nino casts a shadow over the coming months. Palawat warns that El Nino's influence will likely peak in August and September. During this period, western regions may see below-normal rainfall, though eastern and central parts of India are expected to hold near normal.Understanding "Break Monsoon"To make sense of these intermittent breaks between spells, Prabhune defines what happens during a break phase. "A break phase is defined as a period when heavy rainfall occurs mainly in the Himalayan region or the foothills of the Himalayas, while the rest of the country receives very little rain."Ordinarily, a phenomenon known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) sometimes called the "Indian Nina" can step in to counteract El Nino's dry spell. However, Prabhune cautions that help may arrive too late. "Current forecasts suggest positive IOD may only develop by late August or September, meaning we cannot expect it to significantly benefit the current monsoon season."Looking at the first 50 days, 2026's monsoon has proven to be challenging and unequal. Experts argue while active late-July showers are providing immediate relief, the combination of a strong El Nino and a delayed Indian Ocean Dipole suggests that August and September will require careful management of water resources and agricultural planning across the country.