Analysis: BJP's Satish Patel Fills Vacuum In Manjalpur, Wins Low-Turnout Bypolls

For the BJP, Satish Patel has filled the vacuum created by the death of the sitting MLA Yogesh Patel in Vadodara's Manjalpur assembly seat in Gujarat, as the ruling party won the constituency a staggering ninth time in a row.Until 2012, the assembly seat was called Raopura. After the boundary changes in 2008, the new area was named Manjalpur. Even after the name change, the BJP kept winning, with Yogesh Patel remaining its mainstay in the region.The Manjalpur area holds great political importance in Vadodara and the wider region. Located in urban Vadodara, it acts as a gateway connecting central Gujarat to the industrial towns of South Gujarat. The area has a long history of support for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and BJP. Local community centres and cooperative bodies in this area have helped the BJP keep a strong base among urban voters.Patel, fondly called Yogesh Kaka, was the most prominent leader in the assembly seat, having won Raopura five times and Manjalpur three times. In the 2022 elections, he won with a huge margin of more than 1 lakh votes. His death created a new issue for the ruling party -- who would fill the towering leader's shoes?The party finally settled for Satish Patel as its candidate. He was a leader in the local cooperative sector and former Vadodara Municipal Corporation Standing Committee Chairman. Despite him being an outsider and not a voter in the assembly, the BJP banked on him because of his clean image and strong background in local development work.Bhikha Rabari was the Congress pick. During his campaigning, he focused on local city problems like flooded roads during rains, poor drainage, and bad road quality across Vadodara city. He hoped that people angry with civic issues would vote against the ruling party. The election results have dashed that hope.One of the highlights of the elections was a very low voter turnout -- just 37 per cent. This was much lower than the 2022 state election when the turnout was over 60 per cent. Many poll pundits thought the low turnout might help the Congress, but BJP cadres managed to get their loyal voters to the polling booths.