Critical minerals, the foundation of strategic power

Critical minerals have moved from the margins of resource policy to the centre of industrial strategy and security. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements are foundational to electric vehicles, storage, renewable power, semiconductors, defence and advanced manufacturing. As decarbonisation and digitalisation accelerate, mineral security is becoming as important as oil once was. The global supply picture is concentrated. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements, the average market share of the top three refining countries rose to 86% in 2024, from around 82% in 2020. Incremental supply is tied to a few nodes: Indonesia for nickel, and China for cobalt, graphite and rare earths. China is the leading refiner in 19 out of 20 strategic minerals with an average market share of about 70%, making minerals geopolitical, not merely commercial.