Divisions on China missile test threaten to destabilise Pacific Islands Forum

<p>Deep divisions are threatening to destabilise the Pacific Islands Forum after foreign ministers walked away unable to come to any agreement on action against China’s ballistic missile test.</p> <p>Last month the missile <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/06/deeply-concerning-china-fires-nuclear-capable-test-missile-in-south-pacific/" target="_blank">landed close to Tuvalu’s exclusive economic zone</a>, resulting in harsh criticism from most of the Pacific.</p> <p>But New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/06/analysis-plenty-at-stake-as-pacific-foreign-ministers-meet/" target="_blank">left Friday’s meeting in Suva</a> furious over the lack of a strong statement against China, saying “outsiders” had influenced two Pacific countries to try and drive their agenda.</p> <p>1News understands those two countries are Kiribati and Nauru, which have sided with China.</p> <p>Peters said those two countries were using the need for consensus “to respond to outside partners' wishes rather than those that belong to the Pacific Islands Forum”.</p> <p>“Well, they didn’t actually lay out any reasons apart from their disagreement and not wishing for us to make the clear statement such as – we are opposed to missiles being fired into the Pacific”.</p> <p>He said New Zealand was unsatisfied with the result and discussions will be ongoing.</p> <p><a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/12/nz-must-consider-cost-of-joining-pacific-defence-alliance/" target="_blank">Security was very much the theme</a> of the Foreign Ministers meeting, and juggling national interests with regional ones had proven challenging.</p> <p>The reliance on China for assistance was at the heart of it. Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko said while China is one of PNG’s biggest allies as well as an economic and trade partner, <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/07/barbara-dreaver-chinas-missile-test-sends-unmistakable-pacific-message/" target="_blank">firing a missile into the Pacific</a> had been unhelpful.</p> <p>“Look, we’re not happy with what’s going on – it's not helping anybody in the region at all by doing this. It's becoming a negative, not a positive,” he says.</p> <p>Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Baron Waqa was optimistic the Pacific Islands Forum would find a way forward to <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/07/photos-released-of-chinas-missile-launch-in-south-pacific/" target="_blank">address the China issue</a> despite the tension.</p> <p>“We know that everyone thinks that it’s important to respect the region, the Pacific, our sovereignty over the Pacific, the blue Pacific, and we have the Ocean of Peace declaration,” he said.</p> <p>“But at the same time there’s different ideas in how we should approach this."</p> <p>Waqa, a former President of Nauru, said the great thing is Forum members were listening to each other despite their different views.</p> <p>“But we want a strong message as well, not just for our benefit but for the benefit of all humanity. This is the last frontier, so to speak”.</p> <p>Professor Steve Ratuva, pro-vice chancellor Pacific from Canterbury University, said the Chinese embassies in Pacific countries have been very active behind the scenes.</p> <p>“Perhaps giving real subtle threats of various kinds is a way of making sure that you know, the statement which might come out is not that strong,” he says</p> <p>Such is the geopolitical tension that a regional security treaty, suggested by the Solomon Islands, is now on the table. But experts believe it isn’t that simple, there are complicating factors.</p> <p>“That sort of treaty should not override the individual sovereignty of countries – individual countries still want to engage directly with the big powers bilaterally,” he says.</p> <p>He said sometimes these types of treaties are weaponised “so countries like China, for instance, might play a country against the other just to make sure that it breaks up the unity”.</p> <p>Ratuva says another danger is the focus on security can divert attention away from some of the very significant needs now faced by Pacific countries such as increasing crime, drugs, poverty and corruption.</p> <p>At the end of the month, in just over three weeks, Pacific leaders will be meeting in Palau for the annual Pacific Islands Forum.</p> <p>Given what’s happened at their Foreign Ministers meeting in Suva, it’s clear there are choppy waters ahead for the leaders to navigate.</p>