Donald Trump in the Persian labyrinth
This analysis examines the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It argues that the U.S. has reached a strategic stalemate, failing to achieve its primary objectives of regime change and nuclear disarmament.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” United States President Donald Trump told Iranians on February 28, 2026, after the U.S. and Israel assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and launched a war against the country. More than five months later, the war that Mr. Trump believed would be over in weeks, if not days, is far from over. The Islamic Republic has not only survived but has also consolidated its position, at home and in the region. Mr. Trump has alternated between strikes, ceasefires, talks, threats, ultimatums, renewed strikes, and U-turns in an attempt to shape the course and outcome of the conflict and the behaviour of the Iranian state, while seeking a face-saving exit. But with the war unresolved and his objectives unmet, Mr. Trump, confronting a resolute yet risk-tolerant Tehran, has found himself in a strategic cul-de-sac.
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