Escalation trap: On the U.S. and the war with Iran

The decision by Yemen’s Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia signals that the war on Iran has entered its most dangerous phase. The Houthis, a close Iranian ally, had avoided direct involvement due to a fragile but functional ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, despite their controlling most of Yemen’s population centres, including capital Sana’a. That ceasefire effectively fell apart on July 13 when an airport in Sanaa was attacked by forces of “Yemen’s internationally recognised government”. Based in Saudi Arabia, this government maintains loyal forces inside Yemen, though the Houthis remain the country’s most powerful and influential political and military force. Blaming Riyadh for the attack, the Houthis announced on July 20 a blockade on ships using Saudi ports on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, whose crude and other exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely constrained by Iran’s blockade, has increased its reliance on Red Sea ports, especially Yanbu. Tankers from Yanbu to Asian markets must pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb and can enforce a blockade of the chokepoint.