Gold price prediction today: Why are gold prices under pressure? Check July 21, 2026 outlook

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices continue to be under pressure and downside risks remain, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:Gold came under pressure at the start of the week as oil prices jumped in overnight trading Monday due to escalating conflict between the US and Iran. However, oil surrendering its gains on possibility of renewed diplomatic efforts to address the Middle East crisis helped the metal stabilize.The yellow metal, at the time of writing this report on Monday night was trading slightly lower at $4116.Earlier, in the week ending July 17, spot gold closed with a minor loss of $3 at $4017 as it extended its weekly losing streak to the second consecutive week.Geopolitics and oil:The US and Iran have intensified attacks on each other as the present conflict entered tenth day Monday. The US lost three of its troops in the weekend that took the death toll of US troops to 17.America attacked maritime facilities, Iranian Command centres, communication centres and a nuclear site in Southwest Iran. In retaliation, Iran continued to attack US installations in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. It also attacked a desalination plant in Bahrain.The US President Trump has maintained that he will continue to attack Iran to degrade its ability to control Hormuz.Crude oil prices jumped over 3% overnight on escalating drone and missile strikes posing a risk that the war could become a full-scale war. However, prices pulled back as Iran said that it had received proposals regarding the war through mediators. The counter is drawing some support from the possibility of further disruptions in oil supplies as Yemeni Houthis said Monday that they would impose a ban on Saudi Arab's maritime traffic that can jeopardize transit through the Red Sea route. In addition, oil loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s oil terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast was suspended after drone attacks on the facilities.At the time of writing this article, Brent oil futures were trading little changed at $81.76.Warsh’s testimony:The US Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, in his first semi-annual testimony to the US House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee on July 14 and July 15, respectively, reiterated that price stability is the prime objective of the Central Bank. He dismissed the softer-than-expected June data as just one data point. Upholding the Fed’s independence, he said that there was no political pressure from the President. His testimony has bearish implications for the yellow metal.Data roundup:US Leading Index, released on July 20, fell 0.2% in June Vs the estimate of -0.1% and prior 0.1%.US Data released last week showed that CPI inflation, driven by the biggest decline in gasoline prices since 2022, declined in June for the first time in six years. Headline inflation fell 0.4% m-o-m from May; It was up 3.5% y-o-y Vs the forecast of 3.8% (prior 4.2%). Headline June PPI came in at 5.5% (forecast 6.2%), while the prior data was revised lower from 6.5% to 6%. US retail sales control group, whose components go into GDP calculation, came in at 0.5% (forecast 0.5%, prior upwardly revised 0.8%), while Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook threw a big upside surprise as the Index surged from 12.5 in June to 41.40 in July -- nearly five-year high. Import price Index rose 0.3% m-o-m in June (estimate -0.7% prior 1.7%); the Index was up 7.1% y-o-y (forecast 6.5% prior 6.6%). Housing starts in June surged from 1199K in May—six-year low-- to 1427K in June. June industrial production at 0.1% trailed the forecast of 0.2% though. July Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose from 49.50 to 54.4 (forecast 51) -- highest since March as one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2% (forecast 4.4%) from 4.6% in June, though ten-year inflation expectations at 3.3%, matching the prior data, were well-anchored. China's Q2 economic growth slowed down significantly from 5% in Q1 to 4.3%-- below this year's official target of 4.5%-5% growth as domestic demand remains weak.The Eurozone's June CPI, matching the estimates, rose 2.8% y-o-y and was down 0.1% m-o-m.US Dollar Index and yields:At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index at 101.01 was up 0.25% for the day as US yields hardened. The Index fell 0.20% to 100.76 last week.Two-year yields at 4.21% were up 3 bps, whereas ten-year yields at 4.59% were up 4 bps.Central bank watch:Implied overnight rates suggest 1.37 rate hike by December-end, whereas market participants see the Fed hiking 1.84 times by April 2027.The US Fed has entered a blackout period from July 18 until the conclusion of the next FOMC policy decision due on July 29.The ECB will announce its monetary policy decision on July 23. The blackout period for the Bank started from July 16.As expected, China's PBoC, in its decision on Monday. kept the one-year and five-year loan Prime rate unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively.ETF holdings and COMEX inventory:Total known global gold ETF holdings slid to a new cycle low of 96.24 MOz, lowest since September 25, 2025, and down 2.71 MOz YTD. Holdings have fallen 4.68 MOz since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28. Registered COMEX gold inventory stands at 14.78 MOz, down from 24.25 MOz seen in April 2025.CFTC positioning:In the week ending July 14, money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 4,293 net-long positions to 119,147; the net-long position was the most bullish in more than five months while long-only positions rose 1,819 lots to 136,610 --the highest in more than five months. Short-only positions fell 2,474 lots to 17,463.Upcoming data:Major US data on deck this week include weekly ADP data (July 21) and S&P Global US PMIs (July 24).Eurozone's S&P PMIs (July 21) and the UK's monthly job report (July 21), CPI (July 22) and PMIs (July 24) will also be closely followed by traders. Japan's national CPI for June will be released on July 24.Gold Price Outlook:Warsh’s hawkish testimony, looming rate hike, strong retail sales and elevated oil prices amid Middle East uncertainty pose a downside risk to the metal.ETF outflows and reasonably strong risk assets intensify the downside pressure on the shiny metal. At the same time, volatility in oil prices in reaction to Iran headlines can be choppy for the metal. Overall, unless convincing clarity emerges on the US-Iran conflict front, the metal will continue to be under pressure as Trump escalates strikes on Iran. In the short run, the metal can decline further, though the medium-to-long term outlook remains constructive.A breach of support at $3930 will expose $3850-$3875 levels as major support kicks in at $3750. Resistance is seen at $4050/$4115/$4205.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)Get the latest Business News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.