Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy (July 2026)
A new NBER working paper analyzes the long-term economic impact of H-1B visa expansions between 1999 and 2003. The study concludes that H-1B immigration boosted incomes for native workers in non-STEM fields through productivity gains rather than labor supply shifts.
LinkedIn Facebook Bluesky Threads Email Link Working Paper 35560 DOI 10.3386/w35560 Issue Date July 2026 We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.
Get the full story
Sign up for Headlinne to unlock AI insights, political bias analysis, and your personalized news feed.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in