‘Normal’ July rain defies forecast of El Nino impact

India’s monsoon has delivered a surprise this July, defying forecasts of below-normal rainfall despite a strengthening El Nino and reinforcing scientists’ warnings that climate change is altering the country’s most important weather system, report Chittaranjan Tembhekar & Gaurav Talwar.As of July 30, India received 270.1mm of rains in July against a normal of 271.9mm, well within normal range. IMD had said July rainfall was likely to be less than 94% of long period average.However, rainfall distribution remained skewed, with central India receiving 29% excess in July while the east & northeast recorded a deficit of 30% and south 28%.The monsoon deficit since June 1 was 14%. The unexpected turnaround in July has eased fears of a big monsoon shortfall but highlighted a new reality: long dry spells interspersed with short bursts of extremely heavy rain capable of triggering floods and landslides.El Niño alone can no more explain India’s rain pattern: Experts According to a Climate Trends briefing, successive weather systems cut the national rainfall deficit considerably from 40% at the end of June.Scientists say the biggest lesson from monsoon 2026 is that El Niño alone can no longer explain India’s rainfall behaviour.Global warming, warming oceans and changing atmospheric circulation are increasingly interacting with traditional climate drivers, making monsoon forecasts more difficult. “The challenge is no longer predicting how much rain India will receive, but forecasting where, when and how intensely it will fall in a warming climate,” scientists said.Rainfall remained highly uneven. While 16 meteorological subdivisions states recorded normal rainfall in the season and three saw excess to large-excess rainfall, 17 subdivisions remained deficient. Central India was almost normal with a 1% surplus, northwest India had an 11% shortfall, while east and northeast India remained 30% below normal and south India 25% deficient.The findings are particularly striking because the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has projected an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between Oct and Dec — a pattern usually associated with weaker Indian monsoons.Former IMD director general K J Ramesh attributed July’s recovery to abnormal warming over the western Pacific, which spawned successive monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal, and the increasing influence of Western Disturbances that enhanced rainfall over Maharashtra and Gujarat.“Climate change is reshaping the characteristics of the monsoon, which existing models are failing to take into account,” Ramesh said.Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading said the monsoon rebounded rapidly after an early July lull. He cited Umbergaon in Gujarat receiving 1,064 mm of rain in 24 hours —among the highest daily totals recorded since 1901 — as evidence of intensifying rainfall extremes, adding that climate change appears to be amplifying the monsoon’s internal weather systems.Get the latest India News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.