Projections suggest significant population shrinkage for Latvia over next 25 years

Populations are projected to decline by at least 15% by 2050 in half of the regions along the EU’s eastern border, with the 15 regions within Latvia and Lithuania leading the way. In Estonia, all but one region are projected to shrink by at least 10%. As far as Latvia's regions are concerned, the following projections from 2025 to 2050 apply: Latgale region (-35.6%), Vidzeme (-13.6%), Kurzeme (-18.5%), Zemgale (-19.2%), Rīga (-12.8%). In Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, most regions are projected to see populations declines of at least 15%, while in Finland, Slovakia and Hungary, a majority of regions are also projected to record decreases, generally of more than 10%. By 2050, the average median age in the EU is projected to rise to 50.1 years, an average increase of 3.8 years across all regions. In Latvia too, the median age is projected to rise in the regions by the following amounts from 2025 t0 2050: Latgale (from 48.9 years to 55.9 years), Vidzeme (45.2 to 50.6), Kurzeme (45.0 to 51.3), Zemgale (44.4 to 50.6), Rīga (43.0 to 49.9). Projected relative population change, 2025–2050, by NUTS 3 regions Source: Eurostat (proj_25rp5 and proj_25np) Population is projected to decline in 7 out of 10 regions between 2025 and 2050. Of the 1 165 NUTS level 3 regions, population in 836 regions (71.8%) is projected to be lower in 2050 than in 2025, while 329 regions (28.2%) are projected to have higher populations. "The sharpest relative declines by 2050 are projected along the EU’s eastern border, from Finland through the Baltic States to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Marked declines are also expected along the southern continental border, particularly in Greece, Croatia, southern Italy, Portugal and Spain," said Eurostat. "Overall, these projections point to an increasingly uneven demographic landscape across the EU, with some regions facing sustained population loss while others continue to expand."