Recent quake cluster reminder to plan, not a warning sign - seismologist

<p>A spate of earthquakes widely felt across New Zealand in recent weeks is a reminder for people to review their emergency plans but should not be read as a sign of a big one to come, according to seismologists.</p> <p>Earth Sciences NZ seismologist Bill Fry said the country had recorded four or five magnitude 5 or greater quakes in the past week, when the long-term average sits at less than one a week.</p> <p>On Friday, a magnitude 4.6 quake jolted Cook Strait. It was followed by <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/01/light-52-magnitude-quake-recorded-near-te-anau/" target="_blank">"light" 5.2</a> and <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/01/that-one-went-boom-late-night-quake-jolts-the-middle-of-nz/" target="_blank">4.6 magnitude</a> quakes in Fiordland on Saturday, and a <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/02/strong-magnitude-57-earthquake-strikes-near-te-araroa/" target="_blank">"strong" 5.7 earthquake that jolted East Cape</a> on Sunday night.</p> <p>On July 17, <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/16/tsunami-warning-downgraded-after-fiordland-quake-revised-to-59/" target="_blank">a 5.9 earthquake near Te Anau</a> triggered a short-lived tsunami warning, and another <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/25/aftershocks-to-continue-for-months-after-taumarunui-quake-seismologist/" target="_blank">5.9 shake near Taumarunui</a> was felt widely on the morning of July 25.</p> <p><b></b><a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/player/newsclip/a-string-of-earthquakes-rattled-nz-what-it-does-and-doesnt-mean" target="_blank"><b>A string of earthquakes rattled NZ - what it does and doesn't mean - Watch on TVNZ+</b></a></p> <p>"Every time we wake up in the morning, we need to be prepared for the possibility of an earthquake," Fry said. </p> <p>"There's nothing necessarily in these earthquakes that say we need to prepare any differently than we previously do. But it is just a reminder to review your plans for what happens if we do experience a big one."</p> <p>The earthquakes were clustered in time rather than geography, he said, with the science behind why remaining an open question.</p> <p>"There's a natural variability in the system," he said. </p> <p>"There are a few different things that science tells us that might make things linked in a temporal clustering way, but those are really meaty science questions that we don't fully understand."</p> <p>He was firm that the activity did not point to anything larger.</p> <p>"We do know sometimes you get things like this before big earthquakes. Many, many times; most times you don't. So, we shouldn't read anything unnecessarily into this, but we should take it as a reminder always to know what we're going to do if a big one happens."</p> <p>Forecasting seismic activity in the short term remained a work in progress, Fry said.</p> <p>"We're very terrible at forecasting really short-term seismicity rates. There's a lot of research to be done, and it's really thick, hard research that we need."</p> <p>On Wellington specifically, Fry said the capital's position at the southern edge of the subduction of the Pacific plate below the Australian plate made it particularly active.</p> <p>"We should prepare all across New Zealand for what if a big earthquake happens. But there's nothing in the last week to say you need to be more vigilant than you were the week before. Both weeks require vigilance."</p>