Rising Fertilizer Costs, Climate Risks Threaten Global Food Supply

The World Bank has warned that the global food system remains vulnerable despite adequate food supplies, citing rising fertiliser costs, geopolitical tensions and increasing climate risks as major threats to food security and poverty reduction. In its June 2026 Food & Nutrition Security Update , the institution said global food supplies remain generally sufficient, but higher production costs and supply chain disruptions continue to keep food prices under pressure, while production of major cereal crops is expected to decline from the record levels recorded in 2025. According to the report, the international fertiliser market remains one of the biggest sources of concern. Fertiliser prices increased by 35 per cent during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Although prices have moderated slightly in recent weeks, the World Bank noted that many farmers had already reduced fertiliser use earlier in the planting season due to high costs, raising concerns over lower harvests in the coming months. The report also highlighted climate change as a growing threat to global agricultural production, particularly the increasing likelihood of an El Niño weather event. Advertisement According to the World Bank, there is a 61 to 87 per cent probability that El Niño will emerge by mid-2026 and continue into 2027. If this occurs, rice production could decline by between 20 and 50 per cent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa and parts of East Asia expected to face the greatest impact, further worsening food insecurity in vulnerable countries. The report also showed that food inflation remains elevated across many economies, with low-income countries experiencing the sharpest pressures. Between April and May 2026, the proportion of low-income countries recording food inflation above five per cent increased from 40 per cent to 45 per cent, indicating worsening affordability challenges for millions of households. The humanitarian impact remains most severe in conflict-affected and climate-vulnerable regions. Advertisement In East Africa alone, an estimated 44 million to 47 million people require urgent food assistance, with famine already confirmed in parts of Sudan and famine risks remaining high in Somalia. The World Bank also noted that parts of West Africa and Latin America continue to experience localised food crises driven by economic, climatic and security challenges. The institution warned that the combined effects of geopolitical instability, climate risks and rising agricultural input costs could reverse years of progress in reducing poverty and improving food security, particularly in low-income and fragile countries. It projected that global fertiliser prices could rise by as much as 38 per cent in 2026, further increasing production costs for farmers and putting additional pressure on food prices. Advertisement The World Bank called for stronger international cooperation, including targeted support for vulnerable communities, improved early warning systems for droughts and climate shocks, and contingency measures to prevent localised food shortages from escalating into broader humanitarian crises. Share Related Posts: Ultimate 2026 Guide to the Top Business Enabling... MSME Africa Unveils Top 50 Remarkable MSME Founders... World Bank Warns Rising Oil Prices Could Worsen... Overcoming Binding Constraints to Competitive... Global Food Prices Rise Again as Energy Costs Surge,... 15 Social Media Management Tools That Will Make Life... Related Topics: Agricultural Inputs Agriculture climate change East Africa El Niño Farmers Fertiliser Prices Food & Nutrition Security Update food crisis food Inflation Food Prices food systems Global Economy Global Food Security Poverty Reduction Rice Production Supply Chains World bank Up Next France, Nigerian Varsities Turn Plastic Waste into ₦949m Green Economy Opportunity