Straws in the wind: On the Bankipur, Datia and Manjalpur by-elections

The by-elections held on July 30, 2026 in three Assembly constituencies across three Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled States threw up some surprises, but it may be risky to read them as indicators of any definitive or enduring political trend. Still, Bankipur in Bihar, Datia in Madhya Pradesh and Manjalpur in Gujarat were among the most closely watched electoral contests. Though involving only three seats, the results were significant, offering clues about regional political currents, the strength of major parties and the prospects of emerging political formations. These were also the first electoral tests after student protests forced the BJP to remove Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on July 25. The most consequential result came from Bankipur. The seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin resigned following his election to the Rajya Sabha. Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor chose the constituency for his electoral debut, turning what would otherwise have been a routine by-election into a high-profile political contest. He defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar by 19,324 votes, ending decades of BJP dominance in the constituency. It marks the JSP’s first major electoral success and gives Mr. Kishor political legitimacy after years as an election strategist.