The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes
Bitcoin futures carry trades are currently yielding less than two-year Treasury notes, marking a significant shift from the 20% yields seen during the 2021 bull market. This decline in basis trade profitability reflects a maturing crypto market with increased liquidity and fewer arbitrage opportunities.
Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting bitcoin BTC $ 62,729.30 futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now they return just 3% compared with an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries.
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