US and Iran seek Hormuz compromise as Trump keeps military option open

Iran and the United States have returned to negotiations, but there is no certainty that the renewed diplomatic effort will produce an agreement. Oman and Qatar are currently participating in efforts to revive the talks, and a regional source who spoke with The Associated Press said the halt in mutual attacks was a positive sign that was helping mediation efforts. According to the source, both Iran and the United States are interested in returning to the framework agreement, despite President Donald Trump having previously declared it dead. For now, the parties are discussing only a possible compromise concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiations are focused on an arrangement that would allow ships to pass through the strait without restrictions, or with as few restrictions as possible. Iran and the United States have each imposed their own limitations on shipping. Iran refuses to permit vessels to use any route other than the one closest to its coast, while the United States has imposed a blockade on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports. Iran’s Fars news agency claimed Monday morning, without independent confirmation, that six ships had attempted to pass through an “illegal and unsafe route” during the early hours. According to the Iranian report, the vessels switched off their navigation and positioning systems and “acted at the instigation of the American military.” “One of the vessels was involved in an incident, while the others were directed back toward the Persian Gulf,” the agency said. “There is a designated shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. Other routes are dangerous and lead nowhere.” The dispute over the southern passage through the strait was also what led Trump to consider the memorandum of understanding dead. After Iran attacked ships crossing through the route near Oman, the United States launched strikes aimed at reducing Tehran’s ability to target vessels passing through the strait. Iran, for its part, argues that it has controlled the Strait of Hormuz since the war and says it will neither relinquish that control nor allow passage through routes that it has not approved and placed under its “protection.” The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials Sunday as saying that Trump could still order an attack on Iran, despite claims that the American stockpile of interceptor missiles had been depleted. Trump and members of his administration have denied those claims. “The situation remains fluid,” the officials said, without specifying when or under what conditions the president might authorize renewed strikes. The newspaper also reported that Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, believes the United States could compensate for a limited interceptor inventory by going on the offensive. According to his assessment, if Trump authorizes larger strikes, they could damage Iran’s ability to launch large numbers of missiles. During the war, however, Iran was still able to fire numerous missiles at Gulf states. On some days, it also launched as many as 15 missiles toward Israel. For now, the emerging formula appears to be quiet in exchange for quiet, while Oman and Qatar search for a compromise that could preserve freedom of navigation without forcing either side to abandon its core position.