Why bitcoin’s ‘500-day rule’ faces its biggest test yet
The '500-day rule' for Bitcoin, which historically predicted price cycles around halving events, is facing scrutiny as market conditions evolve. Analysts suggest that institutional demand from spot ETFs may now outweigh the traditional supply-side impact of the halving.
The "500-Day Rule," popularized by Pantera Capital in 2023, suggested that investors would historically have profited by buying bitcoin roughly 500 days before the halving and selling about 500 days afterward. The trading strategy, which has historically generated returns of up to roughly 34 times an investor’s original stake, revolves around bitcoin’s previous boom-and-bust cycles, in which reductions in newly mined supply were followed by sharp price gains.
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