Why proposed US-Saudi nuclear deal has triggered alarm over proliferation risks

The Trump administration is preparing to move ahead with a landmark civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that could reshape the Middle East's strategic landscape.While the deal is being pitched as a way to deepen US-Saudi ties and support the kingdom's clean energy ambitions, critics fear it could weaken decades-old global nuclear non-proliferation norms and trigger a regional arms race.At the heart of the concern is one key issue: the proposed agreement would reportedly allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and process spent nuclear fuel, technologies that can power civilian nuclear reactors but can also be used to produce material for nuclear weapons.Here's why the deal is attracting global attention.What is the proposed US-Saudi nuclear deal?The Trump administration is backing a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that would give Saudi Arabia access to US nuclear technology while opening the door for American companies to build nuclear facilities in the kingdom.Two sources quoted by Reuters said that Washington is ready to submit the agreement to the US Congress.However, unlike previous US nuclear cooperation agreements, the proposed pact reportedly does not include two key safeguards:A commitment by Saudi Arabia not to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel—the so-called "gold standard" of US nuclear agreements.The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which allows for expanded international inspections and monitoring of nuclear activities.According to news agency AP, the agreement could also pave the way for a joint US-Saudi study on building a uranium enrichment facility inside Saudi Arabia.US secretary of state Marco Rubio has defended the proposal, saying, "The US is not going to reach any agreement with any country in the world that leads to the risk of proliferation".Why is uranium enrichment so controversial?The biggest source of concern is uranium enrichment.Natural uranium contains only about 0.7% of the fissile isotope uranium-235. Civilian nuclear reactors generally require uranium enriched to around 3-5%.However, the same enrichment technology can continue producing uranium enriched to around 90%, which is considered weapons-grade and can be used in nuclear bombs.Saudi Arabia has domestic uranium ore reserves and, without stringent safeguards, could theoretically use enrichment capabilities to produce highly enriched uranium if it chose to do so.One Reuters source said the agreement merely creates a legal pathway for cooperation on the nuclear fuel cycle and does not automatically require the US to transfer enrichment technology.Even so, the absence of explicit restrictions has raised concerns.According to AP, nuclear experts warn that once centrifuges capable of enriching uranium exist inside Saudi Arabia, they could eventually be diverted towards a weapons programme if political circumstances change.Why are experts calling it a break from US policy?For decades, Washington has generally insisted that countries receiving US nuclear technology accept strict non-proliferation commitments.One of the best-known examples is the United Arab Emirates' 2009 "123 Agreement", under which Abu Dhabi agreed not to enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel. That model has long been regarded as the benchmark for peaceful civilian nuclear cooperation.The proposed Saudi deal appears different.It omits the "gold standard" restriction, and it is also expected to exclude the IAEA Additional Protocol.Alexander Bollfrass, a nuclear expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, described the proposal as "a revolutionary new approach" to nuclear non-proliferation policy, as cited by AP.He said the US appears willing to transfer highly sensitive nuclear technology without requiring the highest available international safeguards.Why does Saudi Arabia want nuclear power?Saudi Arabia says its nuclear ambitions are driven by economics rather than weapons.Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 strategy, the kingdom wants to diversify its economy, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and cut carbon emissions.Around 68% of Saudi Arabia's electricity was generated from natural gas in 2024, while the remaining 32% came from burning crude oil.Using nuclear power instead could:Free up more crude oil for export.Reduce domestic oil consumption.Support energy-intensive sectors such as desalination and air conditioning.Help meet long-term climate goals.Saudi Arabia has also announced plans to enrich uranium into "yellowcake" for civilian nuclear fuel that it hopes to sell commercially.However, another statement continues to fuel concern.Saudi leaders have repeatedly said that if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would also seek one. While these statements are often viewed as political pressure on Tehran, they have heightened international concerns about Riyadh's long-term intentions.Why is the timing raising eyebrows?The proposed agreement comes only weeks after the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities.One of Washington's key justifications for confronting Iran was Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment.That has led many analysts to question why enrichment is considered unacceptable in Iran but potentially permissible for Saudi Arabia.The omission of enrichment restrictions is likely to concern US allies in the Middle East, including Israel, and could raise questions about the consistency of Washington's nuclear policy.What does the US stand to gain?Despite the controversy, Washington also has significant strategic and commercial incentives.According to Reuters, a deal would position US companies to secure multibillion-dollar contracts for Saudi nuclear reactors.It will strengthen America's long-term strategic partnership with Riyadh and give Washington greater visibility into Saudi Arabia's nuclear programme than if another country supplied the technology.Civil nuclear cooperation had also been considered a key incentive in previous US efforts to broker diplomatic normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.The nuclear agreement is now being pursued separately after Riyadh ruled out recognising Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.Could Saudi Arabia simply turn elsewhere?Yes—and that is another reason the US appears eager to move forward.If negotiations with Washington collapse, Saudi Arabia has several alternative partners.These include:China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), which reportedly submitted a bid in 2023.Russia's Rosatom, which has already signed preliminary cooperation agreements with Riyadh.South Korea, which built the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant.France, another major nuclear technology exporter.Choosing another partner could reduce US influence over Saudi Arabia's nuclear programme while allowing competitors such as China or Russia to deepen their strategic footprint in the Gulf.Why could Congress oppose the agreement?Under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, any major civil nuclear cooperation agreement must be reviewed by Congress.Lawmakers have previously insisted any agreement with Saudi Arabia include strict non-proliferation safeguards.The proposed deal is expected to last 30 years and will now face congressional scrutiny, where it could encounter bipartisan opposition over the absence of stronger oversight mechanisms.The bottom lineThe proposed US-Saudi nuclear agreement goes far beyond an energy partnership. It touches on one of the most sensitive issues in global security: who should be allowed to possess technologies that can produce nuclear fuel—and potentially nuclear weapons.Supporters argue the deal strengthens US influence, supports Saudi Arabia's energy transition and prevents Riyadh from turning to China or Russia.Critics, however, warn that allowing uranium enrichment without the traditional "gold standard" restrictions or enhanced international inspections could weaken the global non-proliferation regime, encourage other countries to seek similar concessions and increase the risk of a future nuclear arms race in an already volatile Middle East.Catch the latest World News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.