Why the left-wing candidate Yair Golan could push religious Zionist voters back to Ne

"These are fairy tales coming out of the poison machine. I don't pay any attention to them. You can see there's been no change in the polling map. It's not anything I've said that changes reality." That was how Democrats chairman Yair Golan responded to my question at the Yedioth Ahronoth conference this week about claims from his fellow opposition members that his statements, and those of members of his party, are undermining efforts to win over undecided voters disappointed with the coalition who are considering leaving Netanyahu's bloc. In my view, Golan is mistaken in his analysis. As of this writing, and with no clear winner emerging between the blocs in the polls, there is little doubt that success in the next election will depend on winning over undecided voters. According to a Mano Geva poll released Monday, about 10% of the public remains undecided. Some are weighing options within their existing political camps, but there is no doubt they represent the main pool of voters who could shift between blocs and determine who forms the next government. The defining characteristic of these undecided voters is that they are disappointed with the coalition and have grown tired of Netanyahu, both because of October 7 and because of what they see as his capitulation to the ultra-Orthodox parties. I live among these people. One of the sectors where the sense of lacking a political home is most pronounced is the religious Zionist community — the community, not the Religious Zionism party. Many reservists, for example, have grown weary of ultra-Orthodox influence over the government. For the undecided religious Zionist voter, the dilemma is clear: sending the ultra-Orthodox parties into the opposition, as many would like, would mean a government in which the Democrats hold a central seat at the decision-making table. Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are working hard to frighten right-wing voters with that prospect — both to energize their own base and to discourage undecided voters from crossing blocs. They also invoke Mansour Abbas alongside Golan, although Abbas has received an effective response from leaders of the change bloc, since polls indicate they are within striking distance of a majority even without him. Contrary to what Golan says, this is not just another fear campaign or attempt at delegitimization by his rivals. Unlike propaganda on other issues, where campaigns manufacture fears out of thin air, the concerns many undecided right-wing voters have about Golan and his fellow Democrats are genuine. One reason is Golan's own style. He refuses to adopt a more conciliatory tone, moderate his rhetoric or soften his positions on controversial issues. Some would argue this is also the strategy of part of the Democrats party: just as populism is on the rise on the right, there is growing demand for it on the left as well. But this is not just about rhetoric. Unlike during the Bennett-Lapid government, when Bennett successfully marginalized Meretz and Labor, this time it is clear that Golan and his colleagues would enter coalition negotiations from a much stronger position. According to the polls, the Democrats could become the second-largest party in the change bloc, since the Yachad! (Together) party is an alliance of two lists that are likely to split after the election, reducing their combined strength. Golan also is open about what he wants. He speaks about seeking the national security, education and justice portfolios, rather than the health and transportation ministries held by Nitzan Horowitz and Merav Michaeli, respectively, in the previous government. In an interview with me this week, Golan said that if his party wins 15 seats, he believes he will become defense minister. The central dilemma surrounding Golan is not his threats to shut down Channel 14, cut funding for the Bnei David pre-military academy in Eli or even his harsh remarks about the hilltop youth. It centers primarily on one issue: the future of the Land of Israel and steps toward establishing a Palestinian state. Opposition to that idea may be the last issue on which there is broad agreement across the entire right-wing spectrum, from moderate to hardline. Religious Zionism is one of Israel's most divided communities on many issues, from religion and state to judicial reform. But since the disengagement from Gush Katif, there has been near-unanimous agreement on one issue: the Land of Israel and the West Bank. Since October 7, additional segments of the public have shifted to the right on these questions. Golan and his colleagues make no secret of the fact that they seek not only to replace Netanyahu but also to launch a diplomatic initiative on the Palestinian issue and advance steps toward separation from the Palestinians. Gadi Eisenkot has said publicly that he opposes a Palestinian state, while also criticizing Smotrich's policies in the area, many of which remain highly popular even among Smotrich's critics within the religious Zionist community. Golan told me during that same interview at the Yedioth Ahronoth conference this week that Eisenkot fully understands the need for steps toward separation from the Palestinians, and that he believes he can also persuade Bennett and Avigdor Liberman. It is highly doubtful that he will succeed. But uncertainty over an issue like this is precisely what could drive many undecided voters back into Netanyahu's camp.